So everybody pretty much knows the drill by now, but allow me to just run through it briefly. Apple announces its newest iPod. Now whether we’re talking about the first iPod ever in 2001, the iPod Photo (which was the first iPod with a color screen) in 2004, or even the first iPod Touch in 2007, the story’s the same. A massive number of units are reserved, the AAPL stock jumps and everyone’s on pins and needles until the release day, when stores can’t even keep them on the shelves. So, it’s no surprise that things weren’t any different for the release of Apple’s iPhone except that these reactions were even more exaggerated.
But the really amazing thing about Apple, is that about a year after the current model release date, they consistently unveil the “next generation model”, which is basically the same thing but with slight improvements, year after year after year. This is brilliant from an economics perspective in how it ingeniously plays off of human psychology. Explained by way of consumer behavior, Apple’s releases make the consumer change attitudes, recognize a problem; that their own iPod or iPhone is outdated, pushing them to update by purchasing again. Given that this will be the reason behind the purchase of millions of iPhone 5’s sometime in the near future, I’d like to walk through some of the current predictions for the iPhone 5’s release date.
I recently posted about the iPhone 5 release date on my blog SheBytes.com; since then, there has been overwhelming new buzz, so I thought it would be worthwhile to do a refresher on the rumored release date. There’s been so much activity in fact, that when you Google the letter “i”, iPhone 5 is one of the few drop down choices (not kidding– try it!). Many of these rumors are downright yet unsurprisingly ridiculous; I’ll share a few and then hone in on some sound ideas to build my own perspective:
First, for the ridiculous: there’s a French site called Nowhereelse.fr which rates the probability an iPhone 5 rumor is true. One of the rumors suggests the iPhone 5 will be released between June and July; considering that Apple has announced that iOS 5 will not be released until this coming Fall; this prediction makes little sense. It’s pretty clear that Apple will wait until they’ve fully completed iOS 5 to have it on the iPhone 5. Another absurd rumor about the iPhone 5 hardware suggests the device will come with a built-in 3D Display; albeit the rating of 10% probability reflects how unlikely that is.
And now, for the more serious: According to the International Business Times, “The latest buzz in the market is that Apple will release the much-awaited iPhone 5 in the first week of September…” CNET UK also speculates as to the exact date saying the “iPhone 5 release date is likely to be September 7th 2011.” iPodhistory.com, a sight that tracks…well yea, iPod history, recorded that Apple has previously released its iPod Touch on a relatively persistent schedule. Almost every iPod Touch release has been in the beginning of September, while the iPhone release dates are much more sporadic.
Taking all of this into consideration, I still think that a possible release date of the iPhone 5 will be sometime in early September 2011. Although it is difficult to predict an exact date, September 7th isn’t that ridiculous in that Apple has released many of its past products in the first week of September. But as the old finance adage goes “Past Performance Is Not Indicative of Future Results.” Quite literally: anything can happen.